Proposition: Chicago’s craft beer market is nearly saturated.

Fact: People are waiting outside Binny’s 40 minutes before they open to snag a single bottle of Goose Island Bourbon County Brand Coffee Stout.

Fact: Brew Ho Ho, an event featuring homebrewers–that’s right, not even professional brewers–oversold by 250 tickets. How many people did the organizer expect in the first place? About 250.

Fact: Lincoln Square’s Winter Brew filled the DANK Haus to its 480-person capacity and generated a secondary market on Craigslist where tickets were going for triple their advertised price.

Fact: Goose Island – Clybourn’s Stout Fest sold out in under a minute today.

[blackbirdpie url="http://twitter.com/#!/GooseClybourn/status/164760022088290304"]

Conclusion: The proposition is bullshit. People want more. Let’s see how long the supply takes to catch up and who makes it in the long run.

Safe Bets for 2012: At least six Chicagoland breweries putting their first beer out to market. At least three large-scale inaugural beer festivals. Don’t be disappointed when some miss the mark.

Next up: saturation by the numbers.

In the meantime, what do you think? How close are we to having too many breweries in the Chicago market? Is there room for more local brands? More volume? More major events on the annual calendar?